OECD Asia · JPN
Japan
The archetypal high-tech importer. TES is drifting down; the nuclear restart is the only fast way to cut the LNG bill.
Oil production
0.0 mb/d
3.2 mb/d demand
Net oil
-3.2 mb/d
Import gap
Gas production
2 bcm
Net -88 bcm
O&G rent
0.0%
Share of GDP
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
0 bn bbl
Gas reserves
0.0 tcm
Refining
3.2 mb/d
LNG
90 bcm import
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil50%
- Gas50%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
Japan outflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG. Inflows 380 kb/d crude, 77 bcm LNG.
Local crude
Dubai / Oman
$116.0
3 January 2026 · Maduro ousted
28 February 2026 · Iran war started
The Asia-Pacific sour marker. When Hormuz tightens, Dubai and Oman lead Brent instead of following it.
All crude tapes and bpd flowsMapped crude
Barrels per day.
Outbound
None mapped.
Inbound
- Saudi Arabia380 kb/d−560 kb/d
LNG out
None mapped.
LNG in
- Australia26 bcm+4 bcm
- Malaysia15 bcm+1 bcm
- United States14 bcm+6 bcm
- Indonesia6 bcm+0 bcm
- Qatar5 bcm−7 bcm
- Russia5 bcm−1 bcm
- Oman3 bcm−1 bcm
- UAE3 bcm−1 bcm
Economy
JKM spikes pass straight into industry and households. A Hormuz shock is a terms-of-trade recession risk. Corporate Japan is buying overseas LNG equity as a hedge, not a climate strategy.
- GDP
- $4.2 tn
- Population
- 123.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 0.3 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 0.0% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- 3.9% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- —
- $30 oil shock
- -8.4 pp GDP
- Club
- Independent
Delivery
On the geopolitical timeline.
15 September 2026
PacificAsia re-contracts US LNG as Hormuz stays shut.
North America has replaced >half of lost Middle East LNG
Seven months into the Iran war, Thailand, Pakistan and Bangladesh talk long-term US supply. China Gas signs a rare Venture Global contract for 2030. Inpex considers US liquefaction equity. Shell says new North American volumes have already replaced more than half the Middle Eastern LNG lost this year. The Pacific’s swing cargo is now a US Gulf cargo.
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 2.7 mb/d (net -2.7) versus NZE 1.5 mb/d (net -1.5).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Current Policies | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 |