The IEA line
IEA: more than 10 mb/d of Gulf output still shut in as of August. Gulf oil exports ~13 mb/d, nearly half their pre-war level. Insurance, waiting times and the risk premium remain elevated.
Constrained since 28 Feb 2026Chokepoint brief
The strait that prices the barrel.
28 February 2026: Gulf loadings stop. ~20% of seaborne crude and ~20% of seaborne LNG leave the timetable and enter the risk premium. IEA September 2026 still has more than 10 mb/d of Gulf output shut in. This page is that story — not the rest of the atlas.
Gulf shut-in
10 mb/d
~half of pre-war Gulf exports
Exports ~13 mb/d against 25 before the war.
2026 supply
-5.7 mb/d
100.7 mb/d IEA September
Demand -2.5 mb/d. Barrels that cannot sail destroy demand at $100+.
Stocks drawn
507 mb
Since February. The OECD cushion is a calendar, not a replacement for Ras Tanura.
OPEC spare
0.07 mb/d
Shut-in barrels are not spare. They cannot load.
Brent
$107.8
Security premium on the 2026 tape.
Dubai
$105.4
The Asian sour marker. Hormuz cargo.
VLCC AG–CN
$6.4 /bbl
TD3C. Time around the Cape.
JKM
$15.8
$/MMBtu. Qatari trains that cannot sail.
Sequence
Four dates on the water.
The war is a loading programme. These are the marks the physical market still prices.
28 Feb 2026
The Strait closes
Gulf loadings halt. ~20% of seaborne oil and LNG is no longer a timetable; it is a risk premium.
Spring 2026
Cape takes the overflow
VLCCs stack on the long way around. Red Sea product already had a Houthi problem; Hormuz made it structural.
August 2026
Half the Gulf still shut in
IEA: more than 10 mb/d of Gulf output offline. Exports ~13 mb/d against 25 before the war.
September 2026
East-West is hit
The Saudi bypass takes a drone strike. Spare capacity on the IEA sheet is 0.07 mb/d — shut-in barrels are not spare.
Who is offline
A budget that is a Basra loading programme.
Gulf producers are not a single spare-capacity pool. They are six loading programmes and one landlord.
| Producer | Liquids | Net oil | Rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 11.4 | +7.4 | 24.0% |
| Iraq | 4.4 | +3.5 | 42.0% |
| Iran | 5.2 | +3.2 | 18.0% |
| Kuwait | 2.6 | +2.1 | 38.0% |
| United Arab Emirates | 4.2 | +3.0 | 16.0% |
| Qatar | 1.3 | +1.0 | 28.0% |
| Oman | 1.1 | +0.8 | 22.0% |
Million barrels per day and oil rent as % of GDP, 2025. Click through for the dossier.
The bypass
Saudi East-West pipeline
A drone strike in mid-September forced a shutdown of the main bypass. Saxo estimated ~4% of global supply at risk while storage fills.
Damaged, partially offlineBypasses
There is no second Hormuz.
Pipelines and the Cape move some barrels. They do not restore 20% of seaborne oil.
Saudi East-West pipeline
~5 mb/d
Damaged
The main Hormuz bypass. A mid-September drone strike took the line down; storage is filling on the Gulf side.
Fujairah / Gulf of Oman
UAE Murban
Open
Loadings east of the Strait. Some UAE crude skips Hormuz; it does not replace Basra or Ras Tanura.
Cape of Good Hope
Time, not barrels
Congested
The long way around. VLCCs stacked on the 12-day detour. Insurance did the rerouting before navies did.
Suez / SUMED
Residual
Thinned
Red Sea risk already pulled product around the Cape. SUMED is not a relief valve while Hormuz is tight.
Who still buys
Import dependence is a loading programme too.
China, India, Japan, Korea and Europe imported most of what they burned. Then the Strait closed.
China
73%
The buyer that sets the seaborne tape. ESPO, WTI and Brazil filled the Gulf hole. The SPR is the buffer.
India
86%
Urals and Atlantic barrels. A Hormuz premium is a current-account event before it is a refining event.
Japan
~100%
JKM and Dubai pass straight into industry. The nuclear restart is the only fast LNG hedge.
South Korea
~98%
Product-export machines that still need sour crude. When Gulf barrels vanish, cracks and diets both move.
Europe
75%
US light, Atlantic heavy, products around the Cape. ARA is a residual of whatever can still sail.
See it on the water
Cape arcs, idle Gulf nodes, vessels that still move.
The map is the product. Filter crude, toggle 2025 against September 2026, and the hole Hormuz punched is the empty water between Ras Tanura and Ningbo.