Middle East · IRN · OPEC
Iran
Second-largest gas producer, chronic power shortages, and the Hormuz landlord. Sanctions have not stopped molecules; they have stopped investment.
Oil production
5.2 mb/d
2.0 mb/d demand
Net oil
+3.2 mb/d
Export surplus
Gas production
260 bcm
Net +15 bcm
O&G rent
18.0%
Fiscal breakeven $120
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
209 bn bbl
Gas reserves
34.0 tcm
Refining
2.2 mb/d
LNG
No LNG
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil19%
- Gas81%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
Iran outflows 80 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG. Inflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG.
Local crude
Priced off the waterborne tape.
No local futures contract on this board. Brent, Dubai and WTI still set the netback. Open the flows desk for the markers that moved when Maduro was ousted and when the Iran war started.
Crude flowsEconomy
Heavily subsidised domestic gas is a fiscal sink. The 2026 conflict prices Iranian barrels as a geopolitical residual. South Pars decline without upstream capital is the medium-term risk.
- GDP
- $0.4 tn
- Population
- 91.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 1.8 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 18.0% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- -8.0% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- $120 /bbl
- $30 oil shock
- +87.7 pp GDP
- Club
- OPEC
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 2.3 mb/d (net +3.3) versus NZE 1.2 mb/d (net +1.5).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Current Policies | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 |