Middle East · IRQ · OPEC
Iraq
A budget that is an oil well. Associated gas is still flared; summers still brown out.
Oil production
4.4 mb/d
0.9 mb/d demand
Net oil
+3.5 mb/d
Export surplus
Gas production
10 bcm
Net -8 bcm
O&G rent
42.0%
Fiscal breakeven $84
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
145 bn bbl
Gas reserves
3.7 tcm
Refining
0.9 mb/d
LNG
No LNG
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil58%
- Gas42%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
Iraq outflows 1.07 mb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG. Inflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG.
Local crude
Priced off the waterborne tape.
No local futures contract on this board. Brent, Dubai and WTI still set the netback. Open the flows desk for the markers that moved when Maduro was ousted and when the Iran war started.
Crude flowsMapped crude
Barrels per day.
Outbound
- China470 kb/d−650 kb/d
- India410 kb/d−530 kb/d
- Europe (ARA)190 kb/d−220 kb/d
Inbound
None mapped.
Economy
Every dinar of public spending tracks Basra loadings. Hormuz is an existential shipping lane. Capturing flared gas is the cheapest fiscal reform on the books.
- GDP
- $0.3 tn
- Population
- 46.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 1.3 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 42.0% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- -28.0% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- $84 /bbl
- $30 oil shock
- +147.3 pp GDP
- Club
- OPEC
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 1.0 mb/d (net +3.7) versus NZE 0.6 mb/d (net +1.7).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Current Policies | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 |