Macro & fiscal
Oil is still a terms-of-trade machine.
A $100 barrel redistributes income from importers to exporters in months, and reallocates industrial location over years. Rent, the import bill and the fiscal breakeven decide who is a shock absorber and who is the shock.
Brent now
$107.8
Security premium on the 2026 tape.
Oil demand 2025
103 mb/d
Last peacetime year.
Tracked petrostates
31
Oil & gas rent ≥ 7% of GDP.
Hard importers
107
Hydrocarbon import bill ≥ 2% of GDP.
Rent vs trade
Who lives on the barrel, and who buys it.
Horizontal: net oil trade (mb/d). Vertical: oil and gas rent as % of GDP. Bubble size: net oil. Petrostates sit up and right; industrial importers sit left and low.
Fiscal hydrocarbons.
Share of GDP from oil and gas rents — the number that makes a finance ministry a petroleum ministry.
- Libya46.0%
- Iraq42.0%
- South Sudan42.0%
- Kuwait38.0%
- Congo38.0%
- Timor-Leste32.0%
- Qatar28.0%
- Guyana28.0%
- Gabon28.0%
- Saudi Arabia24.0%
- Angola24.0%
- Azerbaijan24.0%
- Venezuela22.0%
- Oman22.0%
- Equatorial Guinea22.0%
- Algeria19.0%
- Iran18.0%
- Turkmenistan18.0%
- Brunei18.0%
- United Arab Emirates16.0%
- Kazakhstan16.0%
- Chad16.0%
- Russia15.5%
- Norway14.0%
- Trinidad and Tobago14.0%
- Papua New Guinea9.0%
- Ecuador8.5%
- Uzbekistan8.0%
- Yemen8.0%
- Suriname8.0%
- Nigeria7.5%
The import bill.
Estimated oil and gas imports as a share of GDP. A Hormuz premium lands here first.
Oil shock
Who eats a $30 Brent spike.
Meridian’s simple terms-of-trade cut: net oil times $30, plus a gas kicker, as a percent of GDP. Directionally right, not a CGE model.
Fiscal breakeven — the oil price a budget needs.
IMF/Fitch-style fiscal breakevens for hydrocarbon exporters. A $90 Brent that looks like a windfall in Houston is a squeeze in Riyadh.
| Country | Breakeven | O&G rent | Net oil | Club |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | $120 | 18.0% | +3.2 mb/d | OPEC |
| Algeria | $110 | 19.0% | +0.8 mb/d | OPEC |
| Venezuela | $100 | 22.0% | +0.9 mb/d | OPEC |
| Saudi Arabia | $90 | 24.0% | +7.4 mb/d | OPEC |
| Iraq | $84 | 42.0% | +3.5 mb/d | OPEC |
| Nigeria | $80 | 7.5% | +1.0 mb/d | OPEC |
| Egypt | $80 | 2.8% | -0.2 mb/d | — |
| Yemen | $80 | 8.0% | -0.0 mb/d | — |
| Oman | $72 | 22.0% | +0.8 mb/d | OPEC+ |
| Kazakhstan | $70 | 16.0% | +1.5 mb/d | OPEC+ |
| Kuwait | $70 | 38.0% | +2.1 mb/d | OPEC |
| Libya | $70 | 46.0% | +1.1 mb/d | OPEC |
| Angola | $70 | 24.0% | +1.0 mb/d | OPEC |
| Syria | $70 | 6.0% | -0.1 mb/d | — |
| Gabon | $70 | 28.0% | +0.2 mb/d | OPEC |
| Sudan | $70 | 4.0% | -0.0 mb/d | OPEC+ |
| Ecuador | $68 | 8.5% | +0.2 mb/d | OPEC |
| Russia | $65 | 15.5% | +6.9 mb/d | OPEC+ |
| Mexico | $60 | 3.1% | 0.0 mb/d | OPEC+ |
| South Sudan | $60 | 42.0% | +0.1 mb/d | OPEC+ |
| Canada | $55 | 3.8% | +3.8 mb/d | — |
| United Arab Emirates | $55 | 16.0% | +3.0 mb/d | — |
| Colombia | $55 | 3.6% | +0.4 mb/d | — |
| Azerbaijan | $55 | 24.0% | +0.5 mb/d | OPEC+ |
| Congo | $55 | 38.0% | +0.3 mb/d | OPEC |
| Ghana | $55 | 4.8% | +0.1 mb/d | — |
| Argentina | $50 | 2.1% | +0.1 mb/d | — |
| Malaysia | $50 | 4.8% | -0.4 mb/d | — |
| Romania | $50 | 1.4% | -0.2 mb/d | — |
| Uzbekistan | $50 | 8.0% | -0.1 mb/d | — |
| Chad | $50 | 16.0% | +0.1 mb/d | — |
| Equatorial Guinea | $50 | 22.0% | +0.0 mb/d | OPEC |
| Peru | $50 | 1.6% | -0.2 mb/d | — |
| Myanmar | $50 | 3.2% | -0.1 mb/d | — |
| Brazil | $45 | 2.4% | +0.9 mb/d | — |
| Qatar | $45 | 28.0% | +1.0 mb/d | — |
| Denmark | $45 | 0.6% | -0.1 mb/d | — |
| Bolivia | $45 | 4.8% | -0.1 mb/d | — |
| Trinidad and Tobago | $45 | 14.0% | +0.0 mb/d | — |
| Norway | $40 | 14.0% | +1.8 mb/d | — |
| Turkmenistan | $40 | 18.0% | +0.1 mb/d | — |
| Mozambique | $40 | 4.5% | -0.0 mb/d | — |
| Brunei | $40 | 18.0% | +0.1 mb/d | OPEC+ |
| Timor-Leste | $40 | 32.0% | +0.0 mb/d | — |
| Papua New Guinea | $40 | 9.0% | 0.0 mb/d | — |
| Guyana | $35 | 28.0% | +0.6 mb/d | — |
Brent now $108. Exporters with breakevens above the tape still run deficits even in a war-price year, because volumes — not just price — are the budget.