Middle East · SAU · OPEC
Saudi Arabia
The OPEC+ anchor, burning more of its own crude than it would like. Vision 2030 is a bet that solar and gas can free barrels for export.
Oil production
11.4 mb/d
4.0 mb/d demand
Net oil
+7.4 mb/d
Export surplus
Gas production
120 bcm
Net -1 bcm
O&G rent
24.0%
Fiscal breakeven $90
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
267 bn bbl
Gas reserves
8.4 tcm
Refining
3.3 mb/d
LNG
No LNG
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil48%
- Gas52%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
Saudi Arabia outflows 1.65 mb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG. Inflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG.
Local crude
Arab Light
$110.0
3 January 2026 · Maduro ousted
28 February 2026 · Iran war started
OSP-set. The mid-September drone strike on the East-West line is the second 2026 shock on this curve.
All crude tapes and bpd flowsMapped crude
Barrels per day.
Outbound
- China720 kb/d−930 kb/d
- Japan380 kb/d−560 kb/d
- India340 kb/d−450 kb/d
- United States210 kb/d−170 kb/d
Inbound
None mapped.
Economy
The fiscal breakeven still lives in the $80s–90s. Hormuz and the East-West pipeline are sovereign risk, not just tanker risk. Domestic oil-for-power is the quiet tax on export capacity.
- GDP
- $1.1 tn
- Population
- 37.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 1.3 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 24.0% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- -18.0% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- $90 /bbl
- $30 oil shock
- +73.7 pp GDP
- Club
- OPEC
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 4.6 mb/d (net +7.7) versus NZE 2.5 mb/d (net +3.4).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Current Policies | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.2 |