Middle East · ARE
United Arab Emirates
Barakah nuclear plus desert solar, still a gas-and-oil emirate. ADNOC is investing like a company that expects oil demand to last.
Oil production
4.2 mb/d
1.2 mb/d demand
Net oil
+3.0 mb/d
Export surplus
Gas production
55 bcm
Net -17 bcm
O&G rent
16.0%
Fiscal breakeven $55
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
113 bn bbl
Gas reserves
8.2 tcm
Refining
1.2 mb/d
LNG
8 bcm export
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil32%
- Gas68%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
United Arab Emirates outflows 800 kb/d crude, 7 bcm LNG. Inflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG.
Local crude
Murban
$124.0
3 January 2026 · Maduro ousted
28 February 2026 · Iran war started
Fujairah-exportable light sour. A Hormuz-bypass grade — and a reason Abu Dhabi walked out of OPEC in April.
All crude tapes and bpd flowsMapped crude
Barrels per day.
Outbound
- China520 kb/d−320 kb/d
- India280 kb/d−120 kb/d
Inbound
None mapped.
LNG out
- India4 bcm−1 bcm
- Japan3 bcm−1 bcm
LNG in
None mapped.
Economy
Dubai’s non-oil economy is the hedge; Abu Dhabi’s barrels still clear the federation. Hormuz insurance costs are a local business line as much as a risk.
- GDP
- $0.5 tn
- Population
- 11.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 0.8 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 16.0% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- -11.0% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- $55 /bbl
- $30 oil shock
- +60.7 pp GDP
- Club
- Independent
Delivery
On the geopolitical timeline.
28 April 2026
Cartels & rulesThe UAE walks out of OPEC.
~3.4 mb/d UAE capacity, targeting 5 mb/d by 2027
Abu Dhabi quits OPEC and OPEC+ effective 1 May, after nearly sixty years, to produce unconstrained while Hormuz is tight. Venezuela’s later alignment with Washington puts another founding member’s loyalty in question.
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 1.4 mb/d (net +3.2) versus NZE 0.7 mb/d (net +1.4).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Current Policies | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 |