Latin America · BRA
Brazil
A hydro-and-pre-salt power. Electricity is already unusually clean; transport and industry still burn oil.
Oil production
3.5 mb/d
2.6 mb/d demand
Net oil
+0.9 mb/d
Near balance
Gas production
28 bcm
Net -4 bcm
O&G rent
2.4%
Fiscal breakeven $45
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
16 bn bbl
Gas reserves
0.4 tcm
Refining
2.3 mb/d
LNG
8 bcm import
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil69%
- Gas31%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
Brazil outflows 920 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG. Inflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG.
Local crude
Priced off the waterborne tape.
No local futures contract on this board. Brent, Dubai and WTI still set the netback. Open the flows desk for the markers that moved when Maduro was ousted and when the Iran war started.
Crude flowsEconomy
Petrobras capex and ethanol politics move the real. Deepwater barrels are a rare non-OPEC growth story alongside Guyana. Drought years are the hidden fiscal risk — hydro shortfalls force expensive thermal dispatch.
- GDP
- $2.2 tn
- Population
- 212.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 0.4 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 2.4% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- -0.8% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- $45 /bbl
- $30 oil shock
- +4.5 pp GDP
- Club
- Independent
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 2.9 mb/d (net +1.9) versus NZE 1.8 mb/d (net +0.6).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Current Policies | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 |