Latin America · MEX · OPEC+
Mexico
A former oil exporter that now balances on US pipeline gas. Pemex decline is the structural story.
Oil production
1.9 mb/d
1.9 mb/d demand
Net oil
0.0 mb/d
Import gap
Gas production
28 bcm
Net -67 bcm
O&G rent
3.1%
Fiscal breakeven $60
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
6 bn bbl
Gas reserves
0.3 tcm
Refining
1.6 mb/d
LNG
8 bcm import
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil36%
- Gas64%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
Mexico outflows 610 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG. Inflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG.
Local crude
WTI Cushing
$103.0
3 January 2026 · Maduro ousted
28 February 2026 · Iran war started
The US print is WTI at Cushing; Brent is the waterborne cousin on the same chart. Hormuz hits Brent first, WTI with a lag and a smaller spike.
All crude tapes and bpd flowsMapped crude
Barrels per day.
Outbound
- United States610 kb/d−70 kb/d
Inbound
None mapped.
Economy
Fuel subsidies and Pemex debt are fiscal twins. Cheap US gas is a gift to northern industry and a dependency. Nearshoring load is arriving faster than new generation.
- GDP
- $1.8 tn
- Population
- 131.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 0.4 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 3.1% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- 1.6% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- $60 /bbl
- $30 oil shock
- -0.1 pp GDP
- Club
- OPEC+
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 2.1 mb/d (net +0.5) versus NZE 1.3 mb/d (net 0.0).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Current Policies | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |