Eurasia · RUS · OPEC+
Russia
A petrostate that rewired its customer list. Pipeline gas to Europe is a residual; crude, products and coal now sail east.
Oil production
10.7 mb/d
3.8 mb/d demand
Net oil
+6.9 mb/d
Export surplus
Gas production
630 bcm
Net +175 bcm
O&G rent
15.5%
Fiscal breakeven $65
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
80 bn bbl
Gas reserves
38.0 tcm
Refining
6.8 mb/d
LNG
32 bcm export
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil19%
- Gas81%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
Russia outflows 4.52 mb/d crude, 16 bcm LNG. Inflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG.
Local crude
Urals
$112.0
3 January 2026 · Maduro ousted
28 February 2026 · Iran war started
The 2022–25 discount to India and China. It collapsed in September as Atlantic barrels bid every molecule that was not stuck in the Gulf.
All crude tapes and bpd flowsMapped crude
Barrels per day.
Outbound
- China2.38 mb/d+360 kb/d
- India2.14 mb/d+460 kb/d
Inbound
None mapped.
LNG out
- China11 bcm+3 bcm
- Japan5 bcm−1 bcm
LNG in
None mapped.
Economy
The budget still clears around Urals, not Brent. Discounted barrels to India and China keep volumes; they do not keep the old rent. Sanctions, shadow fleet costs and a smaller gas market are a durable GDP haircut.
- GDP
- $2.1 tn
- Population
- 144.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 0.7 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 15.5% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- -12.4% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- $65 /bbl
- $30 oil shock
- +36.3 pp GDP
- Club
- OPEC+
Delivery
On the geopolitical timeline.
24 February 2022
Europe & RussiaRussia invades Ukraine. Pipeline Europe ends.
~150 bcm/yr of Russian pipeline gas to Europe at risk
Nord Stream flows collapse over the year. Europe replaces Russian pipeline gas with US, Qatari and Norwegian molecules. Russian crude and products reroute east at a discount. Delivery, not reserves, is what changed.
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 4.0 mb/d (net +6.2) versus NZE 2.2 mb/d (net +3.1).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Current Policies | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 |