Africa · NGA · OPEC
Nigeria
A petrostate where most TES is still traditional biomass. The grid serves a fraction of the people the oil serves the budget.
Oil production
1.4 mb/d
0.5 mb/d demand
Net oil
+1.0 mb/d
Export surplus
Gas production
42 bcm
Net +24 bcm
O&G rent
7.5%
Fiscal breakeven $80
Oil balance
Production versus demand, 2025, million barrels per day.
Gas balance
Production versus demand, 2025, billion cubic metres.
Proven oil
37 bn bbl
Gas reserves
5.9 tcm
Refining
0.7 mb/d
LNG
20 bcm export
Hydrocarbon mix
Oil versus gas in this country’s oil-and-gas demand (oil-equivalent).
- Oil41%
- Gas59%
Inflows and outflows
What leaves. What arrives.
Nigeria outflows 1.42 mb/d crude, 23 bcm LNG. Inflows 0 kb/d crude, 0 bcm LNG.
Local crude
Dated Brent
$107.0
3 January 2026 · Maduro ousted
28 February 2026 · Iran war started
Still prices about 60% of seaborne crude. The marker the Strait actually writes.
All crude tapes and bpd flowsMapped crude
Barrels per day.
Outbound
- Europe (ARA)910 kb/d+70 kb/d
- India510 kb/d+120 kb/d
Inbound
None mapped.
LNG out
- Europe (ARA)16 bcm+2 bcm
- France7 bcm+1 bcm
LNG in
None mapped.
Economy
NNPC theft, subsidy reform and FX are the energy-economy. Dangote’s refinery is a structural shift in product imports. Gas-to-power is the industrialisation constraint.
- GDP
- $0.3 tn
- Population
- 232.0 m
- Oil intensity
- 0.7 bbl /$1k
- Oil & gas rent
- 7.5% GDP
- Hydrocarbon trade
- -4.2% GDP
- Fiscal breakeven
- $80 /bbl
- $30 oil shock
- +41.9 pp GDP
- Club
- OPEC
Projected oil demand
Regional IEA WEO 2025 oil pathways applied to this country’s 2025 baseline. STEPS 2035 demand 0.6 mb/d (net +0.9) versus NZE 0.4 mb/d (net +0.3).
| Scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stated Policies | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Net Zero 2050 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Current Policies | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |